Crabland analysis using result just announced.
Link to result :http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_6951CA470A93F47B482576C6003BA1CA/$file/CLannc.2009results.pdf?openelement
1. The full year net profit after tax is S$1,008, inclusive of gain from CMA of $900 millions. Share issued 4.2 billions shares.
2. EPS is 26 cents, inclusive of CMA $900 millions.
--- at 15 PE is 26 x 15 = $3.90
3. Net profit less CMA, since CMA gain is "once off", $1,008 less $900 = $108 millions. Divide by 4.2 billion shares = 2.5 cents.
--- at 15 PE = 39 cents..... ???
4. NAV is S$3.16
--- assumming all assets sold at 20% profit = S$3.79
--- provided it can sell all at 20% profit !!!
--- valuation of assets now would be lower than in Dec 09; with China clamp down in property prices, the 7 properties acquired in Jan 10 will need to be written down.
Summary :
--- max price at 15PE, if it can repeat earning at S$1. 008 billions is $3.90
--- without the once-off CMA gain, $3.00 will be too high as the management & other operating expenses will take a hit at the bottom line.
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