Stock Breakout

Stock Monitor: Goodpk & RMG

2010-11-16T15:40:00.000-08:00

Market is in turmoil, best is stay out.

I am looking at loading Goodpk come thursday

Only Goodpk and RMG uptrend is intact

GoodPack

RMG

FR, SGX, Orchard Parade

2010-11-04T18:27:00.000-07:00

FR
could be another IndoAgri in the making, broke all time high of 1.34 yesterday.

OP
Bottom fishing kind broke 1.61 yesterday

SGX
Time to catch up with the likes of KC & KL?

Laggard Blues->CapLand & DBS

Moving up another level in trading

2010-11-04T18:24:00.000-07:00

Level 1: Learning to set cut loss point for every trade & be discipline to follow it.
Level 2: Learning to identify breakouts and trade consistently. Cut loss fast and let profit run.
Level 3: Go for maximum kill.
Three instances from trades yesterday.

Genting - Not OK
Was trading at 2.26(5000 lots) vs 2.27 (10000 lots). If your follow breakout rules, have to take after 2.27 has broke but broker told me to feel the market and preempt it to take at 2.27. True enough, it broke and has to take 2.27-2.28.
NOL - Not OK
Bought 2.23 at the same day and was planning to exit at 2.29. It was trading at 2.29(1000 lots) vs 2.30 (3000 lots). Broker told me to queue at 2.30 but I sold 2.29. True enough, it broker 2.30. I was rebuked for making the mistake. Go for the maximum kill.
SGX - OK
This time round, it was trading at 8.99(100 lots) vs 9.00(400 lots). 9.00 is a breakout point. I preempt it and took 2 lots at 9.00. After that it broke and closed at 9.14. Feel the market.

Key to Success

2010-11-04T18:12:00.000-07:00

I was pondering one morning while drinking teh when a thought come to my mind.

Why pamper myself with car and house? Car is a waste of money!!

I came to an conclusion it is an ingredient to more success and attracting money to you.

The key to success if to have a rich & healthy mindset. To maintain a healthy mindset, you have to be confident or yourself and think differently from most people. Its not how rich you are that matters, its how rich your mindset is that will determine how much $$ comes to you.

Thus spending money to pamper yourself is part of parcel of the process of healthy mindset maintenance. Now, I begin to understand what Pastor Kong has being teaching us a few years back. The key to success is to change the way you think.

Stock Monitor: Sembcorp, Wilmar, FR

2010-10-22T18:06:00.001-07:00

Sembcorp 4.73
Wilmar 6.42
FR 1.26

Stock Monitor: Capland, Osim, Goodpk

2010-10-20T10:16:00.000-07:00

Capland 4.16 double top breakout
Osim 1.10 breakup
Goodpk 2.02 breakup

Triple & Double Top Breakup

2010-10-15T02:49:00.000-07:00


Indo 2.45

KepL 4.23

TRADING RULES

2010-10-12T18:45:00.000-07:00

After much pain and trying, I am going to be consistent and follow these rules:

1) I must never think market is EASY. In fact is the MOST DIFFICULT place to make money. Most people lose $$.

2) Patience is the key. Only take a trade if reward is good. For instance
a) Non rewarding : Gent breaks 2.08 but resistance at 2.12.
b) Rewarding: CSE breaks 1.11, resistance at 1.20-1.22

3) Cut Loss at most 3 ticks from break price.

4) Play breakout and let profit runs.

5) Do not underestimate the market and don't limit a stock rise. For instance Indo break 2.45 even at 7.4% is a take.

6) Identify stocks that can be kept and for contra.

a) CDL, RMG, THOMSON for keeping
b) INDO, SOUND for contra

CPF Rules 2010

2010-10-10T20:35:00.000-07:00

CPF Minimum Sum

The Ministry of Manpower announced in August 2003 that the MS will be raised gradually to reach $120,000 (in 2003 dollars) in 2013. The increase in MS, which includes an adjustment for inflation, is to ensure that Singaporeans set aside sufficient savings for their retirement. In line with this policy, from 1 July 2010, the prevailing CPF Minimum Sum (MS) will be revised to $123,000, up from $117,000. Members who can set aside the full MS will receive about $1,100 per month when they reach their draw down age1. The new MS will apply to CPF members who turn 55 from 1 July 2010 to 30 June 2011.

Medisave Minimum Sum and Medisave Contribution Ceiling

The Medisave Minimum Sum (MMS) will be raised to $34,500 from $32,000.
Members will be able to withdraw their Medisave savings in excess of the MMS at or after 55 years old.
The maximum balance a member may have in his Medisave Account, known as the Medisave Contribution Ceiling (MCC), is fixed at $5,000 above MMS and this would be increased correspondingly to $39,500, from $37,000.
As announced previously,any Medisave contribution in excess of the prevailing MCC will be transferred to the member’s Special Account if he is below age 55 or to his Retirement Account if he is above age 55 and has a MS shortfall.

CPF Changes

To help Singaporeans save more for their medical and retirement needs, the Government will increase the employer CPF contribution rate by 1%. The increase will be done gradually in two steps to moderate the impact on employers. The first 0.5% increase will be implemented on 1 September 2010, and will be made into the Medisave Account (MA). The remaining 0.5% increase will be effected 6 months later on 1 March 2011, and will be made to the Special Account (SA).

CPF Contribution

Self Help Calculator http://www.cpf.gov.sg/cpf_info/Online/Contri.asp?prof=

Stock Monitor: Thomson Medical, Genting HK, Genting & Ezra

2010-10-01T07:01:00.001-07:00

Reversal on hand. Watch Ezra 1.83 break level, Thomson 1.02, Genting Hk 0.465

Stock Monitor: BakerTech & Sound

2010-09-21T07:55:00.000-07:00


BakerTech

Sound

Stock Monitor: Jaya & E-Gent

2010-09-15T09:46:00.000-07:00

Jaya

Stock Monitor: China Fish

2010-09-13T14:39:00.000-07:00

China Fish

Trades Review: Olam, Gent $US, Genting & SAR

2010-09-13T14:33:00.000-07:00

The HIT
Olam : bgt 2.79 and sold 2.92 (breaking at 2.77)
Gent $US : bgt 0.465 and sold .490 (breaking 0.465)

the MISS (didnt go for it, should have - lesson learn)
Genting : break 1.86 close 1.99
SARb: break 2.17 close 2.29

Lesson learn : Time to bend the rules

2010-09-10T16:39:00.000-07:00

Last Friday, Gent was 180-181 can it was only a break at 183. So I wait for 183 to break on Monday to take action, it was too late. Sometimes, in the advanced stage, You have to feel the market and bend the rules occasionally. Learn to feel the market. When market and You becomes ONE, you will retire soon.

Lesson learn: Knowing when to sell

2010-09-06T06:14:00.000-07:00

Last Friday, I have to choose between cutting Cosco or Goodpack. In the end, I cut Goodpack at 1.92 which I bought at 1.96, reason being it was a fake break at 1.95. I keep Cosco which I bgt at 1.63 - no reason to sell Cosco because 1.60 support still holds. Today, althought market surge, Goodpack end up 1.86 and Cosco 1.67 (I sold half of Cosco at 1.66). I am keeping the rest for more upside. Here are 2 contrasting chart.

Goodpack

Cosco

Stock Monitor: CAO, NOL, Noble & WingTai

2010-09-06T06:02:00.000-07:00

Noble

NOL


CAO

WingTai

Lesson learn:What to do when DOW +200?

2010-09-03T07:11:00.001-07:00

You should be sellers in the morning. Then ever be hero and go long.

Stock Monitor: Olam, Indo, Goodpk

2010-09-01T16:32:00.000-07:00

IndoAgri

Goodpk

Olam

Lesson learn: Don't look at small money

2010-09-01T16:16:00.000-07:00

Yesterday I brought Gent back at 1.71 because it breaks 1.68. I sold half at 1.74 intending to sell the rest EOD simply to save commission. After pondering the words by my broker to overlook things like commission. He says I have no reason to sell the rest because the stock is at day high. I oblight and keep the rest. End of day, Gent closed 1.80.

Don't be particular about small money, it will prevent big money to come your way in trading.

Sold at 1.82 for the the other half of Gent. (Gent went to 183 and drop to 175 thereafter).

Stock Monitor: RMG & YZJ

2010-08-30T16:13:00.000-07:00

These 2 are one of most steady counters around. I rate them together with Genting as can keep stock although I don't keep most often. I have some RMG at CPF after disposing my free SingTel Share of 10 years at 3.12. If you have stock them 2 months ago, you should have at least 30% gain each. In fact, I rate YZJ above all S-stocks, it has the most turnover 400 million compare to Cosco 200 million. The only problem - it is S-stocks. I have some doubts about S-stocks like Midas and Cosco, a lot of contracts won but no little dividend given to shareholders. Better be safe than sorry, I won't stock up pick up any s-chips as much as possible.

YZJ

RMG

Trades Review: Genting & Goodpack

2010-08-30T15:59:00.000-07:00

I highlighted Goodpack breaking at 190, I took 191 and run at 194.
I highlighted Genting breaking at 159, I took at 161 and it close 166 as of yesterday, hopefully can sell asap.

As for the rest, no breaks means no buy for me. In fact, WingTai broke down 1.66 because of the government's property cooling measure.

Lesson learn: Trade according to Market Conditions

2010-08-30T15:57:00.001-07:00

Market jialat - Adopt Hit and Run Strategy (2-4 ticks sell)
Market good - Let profit run.

Half-time: Funny Name

2010-08-27T07:04:00.001-07:00

Anne Chang (Mandarin)- Dirty
Anne Chin (Mandarin) – Keep quiet
Faye Chen (Mandarin) – Dusty
Carl Cheng (Hokkien) – Buttock
Monica Cheng (Hokkien) – Touching your buttocks
Lucy Leow (Hokkien) – You are dead
Jane Tan (Mandarin) – Frying eggs
Suzie Leow (Hokkien) – Lost till death
Henry Mah (Mandarin) – Hate your mum
Corrine Tai (Hokkien) – Poor fellow
Paul Chan (Mandarin) – Bankrupt
Nelson Tan (Mandarin) – Bird laying eggs
Leslie Tong (Mandarin) – Rubbish bin
Carmen Teng (Hokkien) – Leg hair long
Connie Mah (Mandarin) – Call your Mother
Danny See (Hokkien) – Squeeze you to death
Rosie Teng (Hokkien) – Screws and nails
Pete Tsai (Hokkien) – Nose droppings
Macy Koh (Cantonese) – Never die before

Stock Monitor: Thomson Medical & GoodPack & WingTai

2010-08-27T06:55:00.000-07:00

WingTai

Goodpack

Thomson Medical

Lesson learn: Always follow chart

2010-08-27T06:50:00.001-07:00

I saw Olam at 2.62 - 2.63, breaking 2.58. It was a clear buy. I hesitate and ask my broker can long. He ask me what does chart says? I should have follow chart and take 2.61-2.62. In the end, I queue at 2.61 and end up with nothing only to see Olam surge to 2.70.

Stock Monitor::China Fish & Genting

2010-08-25T16:30:00.000-07:00

This is not a buy call till they breakout. China Fish at 1.90 and Genting at 1.59.

When it breakout of this level, resistance becomes your support for the counters.

China Fish

Genting

Lesson learn: Don't underestimate the bear

2010-08-25T06:13:00.000-07:00

Typical market will drop faster than climbing. Typical ratio can be estimated to be 5:3. It means it takes 5 days for bull to climb but 2-3 days for it to drop to same or even lower. Dow and Europe is typical having red days everyday only STI and SSE is not following. Be cautious in these red days, all long should be kept best at intraday and adopt a hit-and-run strategy. If you are daring, take a look at DOW and STI chart below.

Head & Shoulder

Double Top

Lesson learn: Be patient and wait for signal.

2010-08-17T06:11:00.000-07:00

Alot of people like to anticipate the market, saying stuff like 1130am will crash or using EW to predict the next market move. EW only is accurate when things had happened. We should not be interested in the things of the past, we should spent our effort waiting for the next signal to appear. Today most of the day, stocks are flat except Genting, I waited patiently for Olam to clear 2.57 or Noble to make 1.63 break before making any move. True enough before the day ends, Noble breaks 1.63 and I have to take 1.65 without any thinking. The decision is straight forward. See chart and follow it. The 3 white candle is call 3 white soldiers in candlestick term.

Lesson learn : Average Up tactics

2010-08-16T16:25:00.000-07:00

Always average up 2-3 ticks above 1st batch buy price. 1 tick is too insignificant. For instance, if you have 8 lots Wingtai at 1,69, maximum u can load is 2-4 lots at 1.71

Lesson learn : Cut loss is essential to survive

2010-08-11T16:25:00.003-07:00

Two cut loss examples that save my skin just last week.

CAO at 1.51, I have set a cut loss of 1.48 but cut too late at 1.46. Although, it is a painful loss, CAO went to 1.42 after that.
Kepcorp bgt 9.00 with 8.92 cut loss pt in mind. I cut 8.91 and yesterday it just close 8.70.

STI View : 2885 a critical point for STI

2010-08-11T16:12:00.000-07:00

Lesson Learn : Never let a profit becomes a lost

2010-08-07T18:44:00.000-07:00

Set protect profit to prevent the scenario from happening. Trust me it feels stupid to have that happened. I long CAO at 1.52 but never sell at 1.55. Due to overconfident, never even bother to sell at 1.52 when it drop back. Do not be over familiar with a stock.

Profiling : CAO

2010-08-04T16:28:00.000-07:00

This stock is a monster when it runs. When it runs, NEVER QUEUE just TAKE THE QUEUE.

Lesson learn : Never force a Position

2010-08-04T16:25:00.001-07:00

1 day back, I tried to bottom pick Yanlord at 1.93 because market very boring. It was a mistake, I cut loss 1.91 the next day. When there's no signal, no position is also a position. No income better than losing $$.

Lesson learn: We can never predict market just follow it

2010-08-04T16:23:00.000-07:00

Adam Khoo once said, there's no right or wrong in the market just make sure you are on the right side. Do not go against market trend. I don't think EW is an accurate tools. EW is only accurate when things had happened which is too late. We are just small fishes following where the Big Fish goes.

Lesson learn : Primary aim is not to lose $$, Winning $$ is a bonus.

2010-08-04T16:20:00.001-07:00

Every trade is a calculated risk entry.

Most people lose $$, your primary aim is not to lose $$, Winning $$ is a bonus.

There are 3 fears trader have:

1) Fear of losing - As long you set your cut loss point, you have nothing to fear.
2) Fear of losing Profit - At most don't win anything. Winning is just a bonus.
3) Fear of Winning not enough - Do not be greedy.

Lesson Learn : Have patience with Winners and impatience with Losers

2010-08-04T16:19:00.003-07:00

You can't win all the times, infact you will lose alot of times. Always cut loss losers quickly and let winner runs. Bought Swiber at 1.07 some times back because it breaks 1.07 but it can't seems to cheong and range from 1.05-1.07, so decided to cut at 1.06 at due date. Although it is lose 100+, it keeps your mind off thinking about this loser when trading. Healthy Mental health and morale is very important. True enough, next day it went to 1.03.

Bought SoundGlobal at 0.79 because it breaks 0.78. Sold 0.820 the next morning. By the next day, it went 0.845. Gap fill thoery target is at 0.85. I should have hold winners longer because I already have buffer. The worst case scenario is don't win anything.

"Have patience with Winners and impatience with Losers"

Lesson learn : Capital gain over Dividend

2010-08-04T16:19:00.001-07:00

2 Days back before Kepcorp XD it was at 9.4+. It was giving dividend of 0.16 cent per lot. The effective gap down should be 9.40 - 0.16 = 9.24. Yesterday after it XD, it ended 9.12.

Alway take capital gain over dividend paid out. Do not be greedy, infact 2 days before XD should have taken profit.

Bought $9.02 and sold $9.38. Never sold at 9.4+ is a regret. I have set myself a profit protection at 9.40. When $9.40 breaks, its a sell signal.

Stock Alert: Wingtai - A buy at 1.77

2010-07-31T01:54:00.000-07:00

There are 4 reasons to buy WingTai.
1) T5 Theory
On 20/7, there is a huge abnormal volume. It cannot be retailers. It has to be BB. On 29/7 after T5, a white candle appear. After T5 any contra players would have exit. No heavy sell down is seen meaning BB is there to stay.
2) Bullflag
on 29/7, the selldown goes as low to 1.69. On 20/7 the flag pole goes from 1.64 to 1.75. This formation signififies a bullflag or high tight flag formation.
3) Green stock in Red Market on 30/7.
4) Breakout Theory
Breakout 1.76 and 1.80 on 30/7

Property Comparisons

2010-04-04T18:51:00.000-07:00

STI component R/S level

2010-03-22T03:10:00.000-07:00

Property Article

2010-03-19T04:51:00.001-07:00

Just met up with this businessman friend of mine who recently sold his condo. He said even himself is shocked with the private property market and worried about Sporeans future.

He told me he is convinced of the following:

1) The demand for private property is fueled by 2 things:

a) 6 million population target

b) The Rich riding on this target

He told me one of his agent's client owned 8 private properties!

Some are so rich to pay full cash with no downpayment, and many owned more than one properties.

Thus u can see recent measures have almost zero effect on these rich.

2) Govt has No intention to help Sporeans in general, judging from their lack of committed actions recently and last few years. Cos Govt itself wants to profit from this property boom and is profiting all the while.

He added that if Govt really want to control the market, there are many things they can do such as Higher tax/interest for 2nd and more properties, restricting foreign buyers etc.

Moreover, the fear for property market to drop if there is control is totally unwarranted, as they can have rebate or lower tax, charges etc for those bought at high last 3 years. (HDB owners ie)

3) He said if Govt dont control this property cost with enough commitment Fast enough, Spore future is doomed.

His prediction for Spore future: The rich owns all the properties to be rented out, and most sporeans can only afford 2- to 3-room flats.

Buy calls

2010-03-18T08:54:00.000-07:00

Ziwo Holdings (cut loss 0.415, resistance 0.44)

Wheelock (1.96, cut loss 1.88)

19/01/2010 trades

2010-02-18T21:01:00.001-08:00

Staying out of market EW rules sti 2000, here we come.

Wheelock buy 1.90x5000 sell 1.88 (CPF)
Wingtai buy 1.80x5000 sell 1.77
Epure buy 0.82x10000 sell 0.795
Allgreen buy 1.15625x8000 sell 1.14

18/01/2010 trades

2010-02-18T20:59:00.001-08:00

Falcon buy 0.7x10000 sell 0.695

How to read warrants

2010-02-16T18:44:00.000-08:00

17/02/2010 trades

2010-02-16T18:23:00.001-08:00

UIC buy 1.88x5000 sell 1.90 (I dun like to keep Loss making coy)
Indo buy 2.1x4000 sell 2.1 (I will never play indo again)

STI analysis - Where are we?

2010-02-13T06:43:00.000-08:00

We could be heading to 2000 at the end of Wave C. scary?

wave I STI 2950 to 2665
wave II 2665 to 2770/2800
wave III 2770/2800 to 2300
wave IV 2300 to 2450

wave V 2450 to 2000

But then Eliot Wave is only accurate after the actual event. Read it with a pinch of salt. It contains 5 up waves and A-B-C correction waves.

Guru's view on Capland.

2010-02-13T06:28:00.000-08:00

Crabland analysis using result just announced.
Link to result :http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_6951CA470A93F47B482576C6003BA1CA/$file/CLannc.2009results.pdf?openelement

1. The full year net profit after tax is S$1,008, inclusive of gain from CMA of $900 millions. Share issued 4.2 billions shares.

2. EPS is 26 cents, inclusive of CMA $900 millions.
--- at 15 PE is 26 x 15 = $3.90

3. Net profit less CMA, since CMA gain is "once off", $1,008 less $900 = $108 millions. Divide by 4.2 billion shares = 2.5 cents.
--- at 15 PE = 39 cents..... ???

4. NAV is S$3.16
--- assumming all assets sold at 20% profit = S$3.79
--- provided it can sell all at 20% profit !!!
--- valuation of assets now would be lower than in Dec 09; with China clamp down in property prices, the 7 properties acquired in Jan 10 will need to be written down.

Summary :
--- max price at 15PE, if it can repeat earning at S$1. 008 billions is $3.90
--- without the once-off CMA gain, $3.00 will be too high as the management & other operating expenses will take a hit at the bottom line.

12/02/2010 trades

2010-02-11T23:04:00.001-08:00

Ho Bee buy 1.73x6000 sell 1.75 CPF
Noble buy 2.9125x4000 sell 2.99
Capland buy 3.75x3000 sell 3.92
Yanlord 1.78x4000 sell 1.75

Capland TA

2010-02-10T18:54:00.000-08:00

11/02/2010 trades

2010-02-10T18:50:00.001-08:00

Took Noble - potential 3 white soldiers formation with increasing volume.

STI 30 Components' Target Price 10 Feb 2010

2010-02-09T22:33:00.000-08:00

10/02/2010 trades

2010-02-09T18:12:00.000-08:00

Swiber buy 1.045714 x 7000 sold 1.07
Wingtai buy 1.71 x 5000 sold 1.78
Ho Bee buy 1.64 x 5000 sold 1.70 CPF
Wilmar buy 6.25 x 2000 sold 6.33

My Opinion:

STI bottom at 2667, end of Wave 1, Today we see a estimate -17 pts drop. I hope there is a full seubsequent wave to 2800, then unload everything.

09/02/2009 Trades

2010-02-09T01:03:00.000-08:00

Indo buy 1.95x5000 sell 1.94
Ezra buy 2.111 x 8000 sell 2.165

USD is so dropping so commodities stage a rally.

08/02/2010 trades

2010-02-07T18:10:00.001-08:00

Ezra buy 2.13x5000 sold 2.16 (cpf)
Indo buy 2.0111x9000 sold 1.92

This is where we are

2010-02-04T07:24:00.001-08:00

2660 Should have a rebound to 2800. We are now stuck in downtrend.

04/02/2010 trades

2010-02-03T20:39:00.000-08:00

Market looks like no strength to sustain. Blues chips like DBS, City, SGX, OCBC looks like breaking down. As such I have to make a painful but drastic decision to cut them. Oversold though. But oversold can become extremely oversold and stay there for very long.

CityDev 10.88x1000 cut 10.60 (cpf)
SAR 2.27x4000 cut 2.215
SCGlobal 1.80x5000 sell 1.82
Wingtai 1.86x5000 sell 1.80
SGX 8.21x1000 sell 7.81 (took 3 times dividend of 0.0375, 0.155, 0.0375 = 230)

CityDev

SGX

03/02/2010 trades

2010-02-03T02:55:00.000-08:00

Parkway buy 2.71 x 4000 sold 2.73
Ezra buy 2.16 x 5000 sold 2.24

STI 02 Feb 2010

2010-02-02T03:44:00.000-08:00

This a hard time for longist, with alot of fear in the air. But then, we should buy some good stocks when there is blood.

Decided to exercise cautious and sold off DBS & IndoAgri

DBS buy 14.26 x 1000 sold 14.16

IndoAgri buy 2.02 x 5000 sold 2.04

Collect some dividends/ TradesTon 1 Feb 2010

2010-02-02T03:37:00.000-08:00

SGX 0.0375 x 3000 = 112.5
CDLHtrust 0.0471 x 5000 = 235.5

Portfolio Update
SembMar buy 3.35 x 4000 sold 3.40
RafflesMG buy 1.37 x 5000 sold1.39

TA on K-reit

2010-02-01T20:22:00.000-08:00

Neutral

The Edge Maganzine

2010-01-31T22:39:00.001-08:00

Take it as a piece of salt for leisure reading.

Dividend Play Chart

2010-01-28T00:54:00.001-08:00

Stay above the fray while investing

2010-01-25T05:40:00.000-08:00

Mon, Jan 25, 2010
The Business Times

Stay above the fray while investing

By Chris Firth
CEO of DollarDex.com

DEAR readers, I am offering six tips on investing in 2010 to help you navigate the world of finance as a smarter investor.

1. Some investments will look too good to miss

This is the oldest trap in the book. We think you'll find at least one 'too good to miss' investment in 2010. Perhaps you will be enticed with, say, 30 per cent returns, or the argument that 'everyone is doing it'.

Of course, there is usually a catch. The returns may be over-optimistic, or have unexplained risks that may not surface till years later. High returns are not impossible and can be obtained through leveraging - but the downside risks are also leveraged.

Property is a classic example of the effect of gearing. For example, you could buy a condo for $1 million and borrow $0.8 million. If the property gains 10 per cent, then your gain on your $200,000 investment could work out to close to 50 per cent after borrowing costs. But you must not overlook that your risk on your investment is not straightforward property market volatility, it is at a greatly amplified level due to leveraging.

Being wary is a good tactic. Salient points of an investment could be exaggerated, selectively presented or misunderstood by sellers. Mouth-watering past returns could be the result of selection bias - meaning you only get shown the good results, and the bad results are conveniently dropped. Any investment that sounds too good to be true, probably is.

2. Average house prices will gain

However, on the flip side (there always is), we are quietly confident that the average house price will improve in 2010. Why? The stellar performance of the stock market in 2009, rising consumer confidence, an improving labour market and the increasing positive impact of the integrated resorts on the Singapore economy and tourism sector.

While unanticipated events could put a damper on the gains, such as large rises in mortgage rates, or global economic setbacks, we expect property to put in a strong performance in 2010.

3. Most analysts' predictions will be wrong

It's an easy prediction that no one can forecast the future accurately and consistently, nor can anyone create a reliable model of the world economy. Arguably, the past is not a good guide to the future. Famous fund manager Peter Lynch once sarcastically commented: 'Charts are great for predicting the past.' In a similar vein, Warren Buffett reportedly said: 'If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.'

Even if we accept that prices of stocks (or oil, or gold) eventually tend towards fair values, large and persistent market bubbles and slumps occur regularly. Over the short run (for example, the 12 months of 2010), there is a huge random element affecting the outcome of complex systems such as an economy. Whatever the mechanisms, there is no foolproof way to explain (let alone predict) market movements.

So take all the 2010 market and economic forecasts you read with a heap of salt - most of them will be wrong in some way, and the ones that are spot on will probably be due to luck.

4. Bank deposits pale against money market funds

A typical 12-month fixed deposit (FD) promises you around 0.45 per cent at the moment. Although FD rates may gradually move up as global monetary tightening pressures are felt, they still look paltry. When money market funds are averaging around 1.4 per cent (LionGlobal SGD Money Market) and one per cent (Phillip Money Market), it's a fairly reliable forecast to say that such funds will be better places for your cash in 2010.

5. CPF Special Account rate to stay attractive

The CPF Board announced recently that members will continue to receive at least 4 per cent interest on a portion of their savings until the end of 2010. In terms of risk and reward, it's hard to beat anything (in SGD) that offers 4 per cent with no volatility. So we predict that this will be the best risk-adjusted return in 2010.

6. Watch out for overconfidence

If 2010 turns out to be a great year for stock markets, then it's safe to say that there will be a wave of overconfidence building up. Shares or commodities always look great during a bull run, but it's easy to forget that the downside risks are still high - and arguably get higher as markets reach new peaks.

Trends are very hard to predict ahead of time and most investors don't spot a profitable trend until it has already happened and is on the verge of collapse.

Short term rebound play

2010-01-24T17:53:00.001-08:00

SGX (<8.10)
Parkway, (<2.87)
CityDev (< 11)

Result Annoucement Date - 2010Q1

2010-01-21T16:08:00.001-08:00

How to choose the correct stocks to watch

2010-01-17T03:10:00.000-08:00

I like stocks that will chiong in 1 straight line, not those go 3 steps forward and reverse 2 steps: You may want to add these stocks to your watch list:

KepLand
IndoAgri
Ezra
Wingtai
SembMarine
CityDev
CDLHtrust
China Fish
Noble
Ho Bee
Parkway

I would avoid these below no matter how good their chart are.

Singtel
SembCorp
Ausgrp
NOL
YZJ
Cosco
Olam
Starhub
CapLand

Bullish Reversal Pattern

2010-01-17T03:01:00.000-08:00

Stocks to watch tomorrow - 18/1/2010

2010-01-17T02:31:00.001-08:00

Tommorrow shoul be a good day to load. IR play/property strong.

CDLHTrust - anything < 1.80 is a buy
CityDev - Condos, Shopping Centre, Commercial centres at Sentosa Quay.

Tat Hong - Looks interesting.